HELP WITH RISK SOFTWARE DECISION MODELING
Order ID 53563633773 Type Essay Writer Level Masters Style APA Sources/References 4 Perfect Number of Pages to Order 5-10 Pages
HELP WITH RISK SOFTWARE DECISION MODELING
The Mojave Manufacturing Company (MMC) is thinking of launching a new product. They would like you to conduct a risk analysis of the scenario before making a decision to determine whether introducing the new product is a good idea for the company. The fixed cost of starting manufacturing on the new product is $32,000 per year. The product’s variable cost is evenly divided between $15 and $25 per unit. The product will be sold at a cost of $50 per unit. A normal distribution with a mean of 1300 units and a standard deviation of 375 units best describes annual demand for the commodity. (Assume they manufacture the precise number of units needed to meet annual demand.)
a. Create a @RISK simulation model and run 1,000 iterations with it.
b. What is the predicted annual profit based on your simulation results?
c. What is the probability of losing money on this new product, based on the simulation results?
d. Do you think MMC should launch this new product? Use the simulation output data to back up your judgment.
g. For a 95 percent confidence level, how many iterations would you need to estimate expected annual profit for this new product within $50?
Cuban Investors buys, develops, and resells real estate for a profit. Mark Cuban, the president and owner of Cuban Investors, believes that a new property can be sold for $160,000. The present owner of the property requested bids and announced that the property will be sold for the highest bidder who offered more than $100,000. For the property, two competitors will submit bids. Cuban has no idea what the competitors will bid, but for the sake of planning, he believes that each competitor’s bid will be evenly split between $100,000 and $150,000. Cuban is considering making an offer for the property that ranges from $120000 to $150000 (in $5000 increments). He has enlisted your assistance in determining the “correct” amount to bid on the property in order to maximize his anticipated profit.
a. Assume Cuban decides to bid $120000 in the auction. To answer parts b, c, and d, create a simulation model that corresponds to the above scenario and run it for 5000 iterations.
c. What is the likelihood that Cuban will be able to obtain the home with a bid of $120,000, based on your simulation model?
c. For your likelihood estimate from component b, please offer a 95% confidence interval.
d. How much profit can you expect from an offer of $120,000?
a. Rerun your simulation model with bid amounts of $125000, $130,000, $135,000, $140,000, $145,000, and $150,000 (5000 iterations each time). You have the option of running each simulation separately or using risksimtable, as mentioned in the live session. Which bid amount value would you recommend to Mark Cuban based on these simulations in order to maximize his predicted profit?
QUALITY OF RESPONSE NO RESPONSE POOR / UNSATISFACTORY SATISFACTORY GOOD EXCELLENT Content (worth a maximum of 50% of the total points) Zero points: Student failed to submit the final paper. 20 points out of 50: The essay illustrates poor understanding of the relevant material by failing to address or incorrectly addressing the relevant content; failing to identify or inaccurately explaining/defining key concepts/ideas; ignoring or incorrectly explaining key points/claims and the reasoning behind them; and/or incorrectly or inappropriately using terminology; and elements of the response are lacking. 30 points out of 50: The essay illustrates a rudimentary understanding of the relevant material by mentioning but not full explaining the relevant content; identifying some of the key concepts/ideas though failing to fully or accurately explain many of them; using terminology, though sometimes inaccurately or inappropriately; and/or incorporating some key claims/points but failing to explain the reasoning behind them or doing so inaccurately. Elements of the required response may also be lacking. 40 points out of 50: The essay illustrates solid understanding of the relevant material by correctly addressing most of the relevant content; identifying and explaining most of the key concepts/ideas; using correct terminology; explaining the reasoning behind most of the key points/claims; and/or where necessary or useful, substantiating some points with accurate examples. The answer is complete. 50 points: The essay illustrates exemplary understanding of the relevant material by thoroughly and correctly addressing the relevant content; identifying and explaining all of the key concepts/ideas; using correct terminology explaining the reasoning behind key points/claims and substantiating, as necessary/useful, points with several accurate and illuminating examples. No aspects of the required answer are missing. Use of Sources (worth a maximum of 20% of the total points). Zero points: Student failed to include citations and/or references. Or the student failed to submit a final paper. 5 out 20 points: Sources are seldom cited to support statements and/or format of citations are not recognizable as APA 6th Edition format. There are major errors in the formation of the references and citations. And/or there is a major reliance on highly questionable. The Student fails to provide an adequate synthesis of research collected for the paper. 10 out 20 points: References to scholarly sources are occasionally given; many statements seem unsubstantiated. Frequent errors in APA 6th Edition format, leaving the reader confused about the source of the information. There are significant errors of the formation in the references and citations. And/or there is a significant use of highly questionable sources. 15 out 20 points: Credible Scholarly sources are used effectively support claims and are, for the most part, clear and fairly represented. APA 6th Edition is used with only a few minor errors. There are minor errors in reference and/or citations. And/or there is some use of questionable sources. 20 points: Credible scholarly sources are used to give compelling evidence to support claims and are clearly and fairly represented. APA 6th Edition format is used accurately and consistently. The student uses above the maximum required references in the development of the assignment. Grammar (worth maximum of 20% of total points) Zero points: Student failed to submit the final paper. 5 points out of 20: The paper does not communicate ideas/points clearly due to inappropriate use of terminology and vague language; thoughts and sentences are disjointed or incomprehensible; organization lacking; and/or numerous grammatical, spelling/punctuation errors 10 points out 20: The paper is often unclear and difficult to follow due to some inappropriate terminology and/or vague language; ideas may be fragmented, wandering and/or repetitive; poor organization; and/or some grammatical, spelling, punctuation errors 15 points out of 20: The paper is mostly clear as a result of appropriate use of terminology and minimal vagueness; no tangents and no repetition; fairly good organization; almost perfect grammar, spelling, punctuation, and word usage. 20 points: The paper is clear, concise, and a pleasure to read as a result of appropriate and precise use of terminology; total coherence of thoughts and presentation and logical organization; and the essay is error free. Structure of the Paper (worth 10% of total points) Zero points: Student failed to submit the final paper. 3 points out of 10: Student needs to develop better formatting skills. The paper omits significant structural elements required for and APA 6th edition paper. Formatting of the paper has major flaws. The paper does not conform to APA 6th edition requirements whatsoever. 5 points out of 10: Appearance of final paper demonstrates the student’s limited ability to format the paper. There are significant errors in formatting and/or the total omission of major components of an APA 6th edition paper. They can include the omission of the cover page, abstract, and page numbers. Additionally the page has major formatting issues with spacing or paragraph formation. Font size might not conform to size requirements. The student also significantly writes too large or too short of and paper 7 points out of 10: Research paper presents an above-average use of formatting skills. The paper has slight errors within the paper. This can include small errors or omissions with the cover page, abstract, page number, and headers. There could be also slight formatting issues with the document spacing or the font Additionally the paper might slightly exceed or undershoot the specific number of required written pages for the assignment. 10 points: Student provides a high-caliber, formatted paper. This includes an APA 6th edition cover page, abstract, page number, headers and is double spaced in 12’ Times Roman Font. Additionally, the paper conforms to the specific number of required written pages and neither goes over or under the specified length of the paper.
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